被称为“史上最严乳粉新政”的配方注册制将于2018年1月1日正式实施。根据《婴幼儿配方乳粉产品配方注册管理办法》规定，婴幼儿配方奶粉的产品配方必须通过相关部门的注册后才能销售。同时，根据财政部、商务部等11个部门共同公布的《跨境电子商务零售进口商品清单》中有关商品备注的说明，从2018年1月1日起，在中国销售的婴幼儿配方乳粉，包括通过跨境电子商务零售进口的婴幼儿配方乳粉，也必须获得产品配方注册证书。
The new infant formula milk powder registration rules, as“the strictest regulation on infant formula milk powder ever”, will come into force on 1 January, 2018. As stipulated in Administrative Measures on Product Formula Registration of Infant Formula Milk Powder released by China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA), the product formula of infant milk powder must be registered by CFDA agency before being sold in China’s market. The List of Cross-Border E-Commerce Retail Imports co-released by 11 PRC government departments, including Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, also requires that from 1 January, 2018, all the infant formula milk powder products, including those imported through cross-border e-commerce from overseas retailers, have to be issued the certificate for product formula milk powder registration before being sold in China.
这一新政的实施， 被业内外普遍称赞为开启了中国婴幼儿配方奶粉市场发展的新时代。
The implementation of this new policy is widely acclaimed that it will herald a new era of China’s infant formula milk powder market.
更确切地来说，从目前的市场舆情反应中可以得知，新政的实施将对国内奶粉品牌提供良好的市场机遇。在中国奶粉消费者心中，普遍对国内奶粉品牌缺乏信心，而对国外奶粉品牌贴上“安全、高质”的标签，而国外的奶粉卖到中国，价格都会翻一番，例如：在英国伦敦一罐爱他美婴幼儿奶粉售价基本在10.5~12.99英镑，折合人民币约92~114元，而在国内这一价格将变为220~250元。但其实国内的奶粉企业，历经种种“事件”之后，已经提升了奶粉全产业链制造工艺和质量管控标准，目前中国奶粉质量标准已经全面超过了国际标准，国内外配方奶粉也越来越趋于同质化，奶源差异也不大，而且相比国外小家庭作坊式的牧场，国内牧场更加标准化和规模化。
From the current reaction and public comments in China’s market, the new policy will provide good opportunities for Chinese milk powder manufacturers. Many Chinese consumers seem to show a pitiful lack of confidence in local milk powder brands, but label the foreign brands as “safe with high quality”. When exported to China, those overseas milk powder products’ prices will be doubled, e.g. a box of Aptamil milk powder sold in London is priced at ₤10.5-12.99 (￥92-114 RMB yuan), but when exported to China, its price is raised to ￥220-225 RMB yuan. In fact, after a series of baby milk powder“incidents”in China, the domestic milk powder manufacturers have improved their quality standards, which has reached or even surpassed the international standards. Consequently, the gap of the formula and source between local and overseas milk powder products has further narrowed down. And pastures in China are even more standardized and larger in scale compared to those oversea ones.
对于消费者来说，问题只有一点：信心的恢复速度，远比质量安全提升的速度要慢得多。
But there is still one concern for the Chinese consumers: their confidence in Chinese milk powder products recovers much more slowly than the improvement of the products’ quality and safety.
这次“史上最严奶粉新政”的实施，将第一次以国家层面出台的新制度的方式，将清走一大批过多的奶粉品牌和配方，其中不乏只靠分装，没有高标准工厂的洋品牌，揭示不少洋奶粉“高价不高质”的现实。申万宏源知名乳业分析师吕昌预计，洋奶粉优势地位不保，国产奶粉将全面复苏，注册制将清理掉绝大部分二三线奶粉和中小国产奶粉，从而将腾出至少300亿元的新市场空间。
The implementation of “the strictest regulation on infant formula milk powder ever”will, at the level of national policy for the first time, clean up a huge number of milk powder brands and formula , including those so-called foreign products which are packaged in China and manufactured from factories without high standards. Those oversea brands with high price and low quality will be brought to light. Lv Chang, a renowned analyst in diary industry from Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, predicts that oversea milk powder brands will soon lose their dominance in the market and Chinese brands will embrace an overall re-invigoration. Also, most small and medium milk powder brands will be eliminated from the market by the new policy, making room for a market worth over 30 billion yuan.
结合此次新政实施背景，【ECdataway数据威】对目前奶粉电商市场进行了研究，观察电商数据是否能佐证行业观点，并前瞻奶粉市场的未来。
Against the background of the new policy implementation, ECdataway conducts a research on the current situation of online milk powder market, with am aim to find out whether the e-commerce data can strengthen the above view about the industry and herald its future development.
首先，让我们来了解一下2017年4季度奶粉市场各品牌的电商市场占有率（依据销售额），与今年1季度相比，情况已经有所不同了：
Firstly, let’s take a look at the online market share of milk powder brands in 2017 Q4, which has changed a lot since Q1.
注1：带 * 为中国国产品牌
注2：2017年4季度为10月，11月至今
注3：平台覆盖：天猫（包含天猫国际、天猫西选、天猫超市）
PS:
1. Brands with * are from China.
2. Due to the fact that 2017 Q4 is not over yet, the data covers Oct to present.
3. The data covers Tmall (including Tmall.HK, Tmall Global Direct-sale and Tmall Supermarket).
从上表中，我们可以发现，奶粉市场的品牌集中度有进一步提升的趋势，TOP20品牌的市场占有率，已经从年初一季度的86.5%，上升到91.6%，其中洋品牌“爱他美”提升2.9%，市场占有率已经达到16.1%之强，国产品牌“贝因美”市场占有率第二，占12.4%，比一季度大幅提升6.2%百分点。排名前三的品牌，市场份额都是进一步提高，另有11个品牌市场占有率有不等减少，显示出强者恒强的局面。
It can be found out that the market is more centralized to the top brands. The market share of the Top 20 brands has grown from 86.5% in Q1 to 91.6% in Q4. As the No.1 brand, Aptamil’s market share has reached 16.1%, increasing 2.9% compared to Q1. And Beingmate, a local brand, has risen to the second place, with a market share of 12.4% in Q4, increasing 6.2% since Q1. The Top 3 brands all expand their market share. But there are still 11 brands have shrank in terms of market share. The whole market shows the trend that “the strong get stronger”.
进一步从市场占有率的趋势来进行分析，【ECdataway数据威】在TOP20品牌中，分洋奶粉和国产品牌奶粉，观察两者在2017年以来，市场占有率的走势：
Then, ECdataway delves into the trend of market share of local and overseas milk powder brands since 2017.
注：平台覆盖：天猫（包含天猫国际、天猫超市、天猫西选）
PS: The data covers Tmall (including Tmall.HK ,Tmall Global Direct-sale and Tmall Supermarket).
上图中，可以发现，TOP20品牌奶粉中，洋奶粉基本维持在65~69%的市场份额，而国产奶粉维持在20~22%的市场份额，在618狂欢节期间，是洋奶粉的表现比较突出，市场占有率冲高到73.1%，而国产奶粉通过双11活动在11月份市场份额提升到24.4%。而在最近三个月中，洋奶粉的市场份额已经连续3个月小幅下滑，从目前的数据来看，一定程度上，与分析师看好国产奶粉的未来预期相符合，但这样的趋势是否会随着2018年新政实施的到来，进一步延续或加剧，的确有待进一步跟踪观察。
The statistics show that the among the Top 20 brands, foreign brands occupies 65-67% market share while the local ones only 20-22% market share. During the June 18th online shopping carnival, foreign brands’ market share skyrocketed to 73.1%. While the local brands’ market share rose to 24.4% in November with the help of Double 11 shopping festival. But the situation is changing. The market share of foreign brands has been decreasing for 3 consecutive months since September, which in a sense testify the prediction upon the outlook of the local milk powder industry. Will the new policy maintain the status quo or intensify this trend in 2018? We still need to wait and see.
